Systems Engineering
Critical Thinking, Decision and Risk Analysis
Overview
This course provides an overview of decision and risk analysis techniques. It focuses on how to make rational decisions in the presence of uncertainty and conflicting objectives. Concepts will be illustrated through case studies and practiced by students through exercises.
Class will also consider the “trade-space” of multiple criteria relevant to decisions. These can be traded off against one another to achieve specific outcomes and are reflected in the form of specific alternative solutions. Typical criteria include performance/benefits, schedule, risk, and cost. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis will also be discussed.
Why You Should Take This Course
Upon completion of the course, students will:
- Understand proven critical thinking, decision making, and risk analysis techniques
- Understand how to make rational decisions in the presence of uncertainty and conflicting objectives
Course Outline
Critical Thinking, Decision and Risk Analysis
- Contexts for decision making
- Principles of rational decision-making
- Multi-criteria decision making using multi-attribute utility theory
- Ranking and scoring approaches to group decision making
- Representing and solving decision problems using influence diagrams and decision trees
- Objective and subjective probabilities
- Defining and calculating the value of information
- Separation into smaller decisions
- Modeling risk attitudes and utility functions
- Sequential decision making
- Risk analysis and risk management processes
- Risk communication